Putin claims to be a champion of the rights of Russian speakers, whose families often moved to neighboring nations when they were all under Soviet rule. And historically many were allied with Moscow and had grievances against the post-Communist pro-Western governments. Now Putin has upended that. His invasion and behavior embarrasses many Russian speakers and makes them rethink their allegiance.
In Lviv, Ukraine, Oleksandra Kabanova told me that she and her husband are native Russian speakers who always spoke to each other in Russian. But after her husband joined the Ukrainian Army last year to fight the Russian invaders, they switched to Ukrainian, even if she sometimes struggles to find the right word.
“It was way too toxic to continue speaking Russian,” she said.
Putin’s invasion paradoxically strengthened the Baltic countries, which until last year faced fundamental challenges. Each had a seemingly indigestible Russian minority, plus NATO’s real-life commitment to protect these countries was uncertain — especially during the presidency of Donald Trump. (A nightmare for leaders in the region is that Trump is re-elected in 2024, possibly wrecking NATO, cutting off aid to Ukraine and rescuing Putin from himself.)
Putin also revived NATO. It has added Finland and is moving to include Sweden, and there is renewed commitment to Article 5, which would lead all NATO countries to rush in to fight off any Russian incursion. As for the Russian speakers, they are finally being digested.
“The majority of our Russian-speaking people are with us,” Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, told me. “They clearly see that life here is so much better than life in Russia.”
The mood in the Baltics is reflected by a huge poster in Riga, Latvia, showing Putin’s face as that of a skull-like monster.
The fundamental truth is that Putin has weakened Russia. It appears to be in a long-term economic and demographic decline that Putin has accelerated. Russia’s only claim to relevance is its nuclear arsenal; as a saying goes, it is “Burkina Faso with nukes.”